https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-ezra-klein-show/id1548604447?i=1000566350184
6.16.2022
6.15.2022
5.10.2022
5.06.2022
Inflation
Corporations are using the pandemic as means to raise prices (and profits) aggressively: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/opinion/us-companies-inflation.html
What we have learned is that demand for many items is inelastic, and that vendors have consolidated to the point that competition for many goods is limited. As a result, producers will push pricing to the point that it affects sales. We see this in the housing market, where there is little or no price point that consumers will not push through. Supply is more limited in this case in many markets, yet housing prices continue to inflate by ~20% per year or more. I see this as akin to the Japanese asset price bubble of the late 80's and early 90's where access to easy credit caused rampant speculation in the markets which carried over to consumer goods, such that being a tourist in Japan is now on a whole other level of expensive compared to the cost of visiting New York City, etc, and inflation there is continuing to rise against a backdrop of reduced manufacturing. I would be prepared for the higher costs for everything to continue at least five years.
Personally, I have seen this happening at the Bakery, where virtually all of our supplies and ingredients have risen by 20-50%.
Check out this substack from Chartbook. We are going through a relatively intense inflation cycle. I believe profits are actually going to go super high 1 year from now as inflating costs of goods sold will be passed on to consumers in the form of even higher prices. And they will pay it. Demand is relatively inelastic right now.
5.03.2022
4.26.2022
4.08.2022
4.07.2022
4.06.2022
The Great Smartening
The opportunity of the present is what I would call The Great Smartening. Or perhaps The Great Flattening. Meaning, anything we now want to do, we can just go and do it. If we want to install a new toilet, we watch a video. If we want to have better sex, there's a very effective Netflix series for that. If we want to cook or bake better, there are a million and one how-tos on Instagram. Anyone can make anything they want. It is all within reach. There are no more black boxes. It's not a question of success and failure, because whatever we want to do, we can do it. And as Anna Jaffe says, we can't fail, because the world is on fire.
2.14.2022
2.13.2022
1.24.2022
Camp Alton Alma Mater
"We hail thee night and day,
Praise to thee, Alton,"
"Thy stately pines so tall,
Heighten thy splendor"
"God keep you safe we pray
Praise to thee, Alton"
"Rugged men of strength and courage"
"We thee adore"
http://campalton.com/index.php/all-things-alton/alton-classics/188-camp-hymn
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