5.05.2011

Energy Inflation / Economic Chain Reaction

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2011/04/jim_grant_talks.html
(Start at minute 15:00. via ACP)

gas went up 15% last 6 months.

energy is 10% of cpi.

cpi goes up 1.5%

this brings the inflation rate from 2.50% to ~4.00%.

the last time we saw 4% inflation was around 2006, when the Fed had raised rates to cool the housing market, but instead triggered a recession.

instead, this time, the inflation may come prior to the interest rate adjustment. nevertheless, the interest rate movement (to 4-6%) could trigger all the horrible things jim grant talked about above in the link.

see:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/31/Federal_Funds_Rate_1954_thru_2009_effective.svg

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/currentinflation.asp

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

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